Since the COVID crisis began, we’ve seen stocks abseil off their February highs.
Some of the daily drops have been unbelievable. 7-10%!
Now the big worry is that house prices are about to follow.
Some predict a 10% drop. Others say closer to 20%.
It’s easy to think this way when there’s a ban on public auctions and open-house viewings right now.
I mean, how can people make a six- or seven-figure decision when they can’t even look around the property they want to buy?!
More to the point, with unemployment rising and the threat of further job losses growing by the day, who’s willing to throw that kind of money around anyway?
So let me be clear before we go any further.
This is not a property market ‘puff piece’.
I DO expect house prices to fall in response to this crisis.
It’s impossible to have a vibrant housing market in a lockdown!
Those who do sell right now will be people who absolutely HAVE to.
These panic sellers will take what they can get. That will pull prices down, inevitably.
BUT...as bad as it all sounds...
Don’t be so dumbfounded by all the white noise in the media that you fail to see what’s really happening here...
...and miss what could be one of the biggest opportunities of your lifetime.
You see, there’s a bigger story at play here.
It’s rooted in more than 200 years of data...
And it can help you make sense of what’s happening in the property and stock markets right now...and better predict what may come next.
It’s a phenomenon that explains peaks and troughs...bull and bear markets in real estate...the ASX...and in the economy, too...
An idea that could completely change the way you invest over the coming months, years and even decades of your life — including what you choose to do right now.
And what should you do right now?
Soon, I believe you’ll get the rare opportunity to buy prime Australian property, at bargain prices, with a huge tailwind building at your back.
My belief is that the housing market will turn at the end of 2021. And then boom into 2026...
If history repeats the same way it has for more than two centuries...house prices could quickly eclipse all-time highs in every Australian capital city.
If you get your strategy right, you may find yourself presented with...
This is the exact opposite of everything else you’re hearing at the moment.
But I’m so sure I’m right about this.
This is a stylised chart of the 18-year real estate cycle. Sometimes known as the ‘grand cycle’ because it applies to the stock market too.
According to the cycle, asset prices rise for around 14 years in total, with a slowdown in the middle. Then they crash hard for roughly four years.
One full revolution of the cycle takes, on average, 18 years.
Sometimes it’s closer to 17...other times it’s more like 19.
But the point is, you can track the basic pattern back 65 years, beat for beat.
Prior to that, the Second World War skewed the cycle a bit, mainly because of the colossal amount of money that got diverted to the war effort.
But before the war, this same pattern holds all the way back to the year 1800.
I’ll tell you more about the 18-year cycle and how it works in a moment.
The important thing to know now is this:
By my reckoning, you’ve got around a year and a half to wait it out...devise a strategy...and get ready to capitalise.
Then — if this same pattern holds — the Australian property market will take off again...BIG TIME...all the way to 2026.
That’s the point at which we’re likely to see a major property crash.
Again, I say: I know this is different to what you’re reading in the mainstream media right now.
But I’ve used this same 18-year cycle to guide property investments, developments and my buyer advocacy business for the last two decades...through booms, slumps and everything in between.
Let me give you some real-world context.
The last ‘mid-cycle slowdown’ came along in late 2001...roughly 18 years ago (surprise, surprise).
It was triggered by the events of 9/11. During this time, the US stock market suffered its worst one-day points fall in history — since eclipsed by the market reaction during the coronavirus pandemic.
Take a look at this chart showing the US Dow Jones Industrial Index at the time...
You can see that after rising for about seven years, US stocks fell for around a year and a half (though not in a straight line) to mid-March 2003.
That was the mid-cycle slowdown.
Then the second half of the cycle kicked in and powered the market up to the last cycle peak in 2007...before crashing again in the global financial crisis.
After that, the current 18-year cycle began.
I expect the peak of this cycle to come sometime in 2026.
In other words, if the pattern holds, like it’s done for the last 200-plus years, you won’t see a serious and sustained property crash in Australia for another six years at least.
So, if you can keep your powder dry now...and time your buying for late 2021...it could be your best opportunity to buy prime real estate as cheaply as you’re likely to see it over the next decade.
(Maybe stocks too — you can see how the stock market tracks the same timeline. More on this later.)
Let me say it again. If I’m right...and this IS a mid-cycle slowdown...
You only tend to get major real estate crashes at the END of an 18-year cycle.
We’re only halfway through this one.
At the end of an 18-year cycle, the big crash is often caused by a credit bust.
That’s when you tend to see loan defaults and foreclosures.
You’re not seeing those right now.
What you’re seeing, instead, is the government flooding the economy with an insane amount of money in order to PREVENT loan defaults and foreclosures.
They’ve already started ‘quantitative easing’ (money printing)... They are buying up mortgage-backed securities. And they’ve cut interest rates to 0.25%.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said recently:
‘We are prepared to transact in whatever quantities are necessary to achieve this objective... There are no limits on what we can buy or how much we can buy.’
There’s likely to be rent relief too, and more tax concessions to help stretched Australian families and businesses out.
This is on top of the six-month ‘repayment holiday’ you can get from your bank if you can’t pay your mortgage while we’re all in lockdown.
Don’t underestimate the effect this will have on the property market!
We’re talking about a colossal amount of money...equivalent to 10% of our GDP
It’s the biggest economic stimulus ever seen in Australia.
When this new money finds its way to us, many will hoard it until the market turns again.
And then — as usual — it will go back to the land.
Once the worst of the coronavirus crisis passes, expect the federal and state governments to do everything they can to fire up the property market again.
I’m sure we’ll see easier credit, lower stamp duties, homebuying grants, council tax relief and low deposit schemes. You name it, we’ll likely see it.
Buyers will be tempted back in, one way or another — mark my words.
In fact, some folks aren’t even waiting for politicians to act. I just read this in The Wall Street Journal (8 April):
‘A growing number of property investors are preparing for what they believe could be a once-in-a generation opportunity to buy distressed real-estate assets at bargain prices.’
While here, The Australian Financial Review reports (26 March):
‘Rich lister Nigel Satterley and his co-investors have swooped on almost $200 million of development sites in Greater Perth and Melbourne, as they prepare for a rise in housing demand after the coronavirus pandemic passes.’
And this from 6 April:
‘Prominent Melbourne-based developer Jeff Xu has agreed to pay $23 million for a 1.65-hectare residential site in the city’s south-eastern suburbs... we may see a surprising degree of activity from developers in acquiring sites in preparation for an inevitable upturn.’
See that, reader?
Everybody expects it.
That’s because Australia is reliant on a strong housing market.
The banks need it. The government needs it.
WE need it.
And it will be back — the cycle says so.
Right now, the pattern appears to be holding firm.
To give you some idea of what’s likely to happen next, and the opportunity it could hand you...
...I recommend you read my new eBook, The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026.
It will give you the context behind why a downturn was always likely this year.
It will show you how long the cycle says the slowdown will last...and, if you’re a buyer, seller, investor, builder or developer, what to do about it, and when.
In The Mid-Cycle Almanac, I explain why I think property investors are on the cusp of a huge opportunity...
...when I think you should get back into the market...
...what types of properties are likely to be in high demand in the first stages of the expected boom...
...and where I estimate the new Aussie ‘hotspots’ will be in the next six years.
And if you’re a browbeaten stock investor, wondering what to do for the best, I have answers for you, too.
I’ll show you how you can download a copy in a moment. But right now, I just want you to think about this...
I’m not talking about the pandemic. COVID-19 was just the trigger.
I’ll be honest — I didn’t expect a novel virus would be the trigger. Then again, I didn’t expect terrorists flying packed aeroplanes into buildings would be the last mid-cycle trigger...
But I did expect that markets would slow down this year.
The cycle predicted it.
The monthly publication I write, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, has been warning investors to prepare for this mid-cycle event since our first issue came out in 2014.
Here’s a direct quote from that issue, by former editor, Phil Anderson:
‘This allows us to date the mid-cycle slowdown of the new real estate cycle [that] just started. The halfway point of 14 years up. A 2019 peak into 2020/2021 recessionary years, with 2021 the low...’
We forecast a 2020 downturn SIX YEARS AGO.
To explain why we were so confident, let me show you something few people have seen...
This chart shows land values in the US between 1800 and 1923.
Take a close look...you’ll see that the oldest data on this chart goes back 220 years...
Look at the peaks. If you average out the time between each one, you get 18 years.
After each peak in land sales, you get a downturn.
If you average out the time it takes for sales to begin to rise again, you get four years.
From there, the average time to the next peak is 14 years.
That’s 18 years in total. 14 years of rising prices and four years where they fall.
Now look at this brilliant chart from the guys at LF Economics...
It shows synchronised real estate downturns in Australia and the United States.
We tend to get the big price falls at the same time. These downturns you see here were preceded by rampant real estate speculation.
The most recent major downturns occurred in 1973, 1990/91 and 2008. Note how long between the downturns… Again, 18 years.
And if you know it, you can do some seriously exciting planning...
Just think about it. How useful would this real estate ‘timetable’ be to you if:
If any of these describe your situation, keep reading, I can help.
What follows could totally change the way you buy, sell or invest in property.
It’s not magic – but it appears magical in the way that it repeats.
And even though it may seem like there’s some weird sorcery at play here, the real estate cycle is based on 200 years’ worth of actual land value data.
It’s an economic study, that’s all. We’re using this data to project forward.
There’s no secret behind it.
The only secret to successful property investing is...
Get your timing right in the property market, and it can potentially change EVERYTHING in your life. (The same is true if you get your timing wrong...)
According to the Aussie/CoreLogic report, in the 25 years to 2018, the average house price in Australia went up by 412% (despite the last cycle peak in 2008, which you can clearly see on this chart).
Check it out...
Twenty-five years is pretty standard for a mortgage term.
So this chart is a visual depiction of a life-changing investment.
For most of us, we buy a house, live in it, raise the kids, pay off the mortgage, then sell it to fund our retirement.
As you can see, this has been a pretty good strategy for most Australians!
But some Australians — like the handful of investors and developers I advise — have used the 18-year real estate cycle to do much more than time when to buy their house...
Many have used the knowledge I’ve shared with them to purchase and develop sites...
To build or acquire the right types of property in the right locations at the right time...
Then taken advantage of the incredible tailwind that followed.
Some of my clients have become incredibly wealthy doing this.
What’s their secret?
Let me demonstrate that to you...
In The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026, I’ll show you what the cycle says about...
The way I describe the 18-year cycle to clients is that it can help you see things that others can’t.
I’m not saying that it’s 100% accurate, all of the time. But to me it’s like switching on a GPS and seeing exactly where you are in the market...and getting a picture of what’s up ahead.
So, while other people are reacting to events...buying at the wrong time...panic selling for no good reason...or taking an age to figure things out...you may have already made your move...
Let me tell you, thanks to the 18-year cycle...
NOTHING that’s happened so
far this year has surprised me
(in the markets, at least!)
My name is Catherine Cashmore.
I’m President of Prosper Australia, the country’s oldest economics organisation.
I’ve been in the Australian real
estate business for 20 years, as a developer, consultant, buyer’s advocate and seller’s agent.
Through my business, I’ve helped scores of people build wealth through property...and others make the biggest and most important investment of their lives.
But my passion runs way deeper than that. I’ve studied land price data for many years and in many countries, including the US and the UK (from where I originally hail).
And I’ve written about it in The Australian Financial Review, Progress Magazine, Property Observer and Macro Business...and in the pages of my own monthly newsletter, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts.
I’m a regular guest lecturer at RMIT and Sydney University, where I talk about real estate, city planning, tax and the economy.
And I’m occasionally invited on TV to talk about the state of the housing market, as you can see to your right.
So you could say I have some expertise and clout when it comes to the Australian property market.
You know who I’m talking about.
Those real estate agents in your suburb who look about 22 years old...
The ones with the sharp haircuts...the $300 shoes...and the sponsored cars...
They all spout the same line about property when they’re trying to get you to commit your cash:
‘You can’t go wrong...’ ‘Real estate bubbles don’t exist...’ ‘Never a bad time to buy...’
Well, guess what?
You CAN go wrong.
And there IS a bad time to buy.
This is why I get on so well with my clients. And why I have such a good reputation, where many others don’t.
See, unlike all the spruikers out there, I tell the truth.
I tell clients when I think they’re making a good investment in a good location at a good time.
And I advise them not to part with their money when the data doesn’t stack up.
That makes me unpopular with the spruikers (to say the least).
It also explains...
Think about it. This is a pretty obvious repeating pattern, backed by more than 200 years of land value data. It appears to show you when the housing market is likely to soar...and when it’s probably going to crash.
You have to wonder: Why isn’t the media all over it?
Well, in order to have a cycle, you have to have a boom, which, obviously, everyone loves...
But you also have to have a crash.
That’s the nature of cycles.
Trouble is, none of the spruikers...or the flashy real estate agents...or the politicians who need your vote...want to talk about the ‘crash’ part.
They only want to talk about the ‘boom’ part...the part where Australian house prices ‘double every seven years’.
The ‘crash’ part of the cycle doesn’t quite fit the spruikers’ narrative.
But I’m no spruiker.
My interest lies with the underlying economic data. And how it can help us understand why things happen and when they’re likely to again.
I believe this is the secret to REALLY making money from property.
Knowing that the real estate cycle ends with a ‘crash’ is just as useful to me (and my investor and developer clients) as timing the ‘boom’ that comes before it.
I use all of this knowledge — the good AND the bad — to make predictions about what may be ahead...and to make decisions about when and where to invest for the best possible outcome.
Now, of course, no one can ACTUALLY see into the future. That’s impossible.
And let me be clear: the cycle isn’t always 100% accurate. It doesn’t repeat the EXACT same way every single time, as you’ll see.
It can’t tell you which events will cause crashes or booms.
And since I’m on the subject, there’s always the possibility that MY reading of the cycle could be off. I’d like to think that’s pretty rare, but it’s not impossible...
The point is: it’s not an exact science. And the cycle isn’t a crystal ball. It’s just a pattern. A pattern that takes a little time and a lot of data to see...
But when you do, you’re able to get a view on why asset prices move... and when they’re likely to next.
Now, why wouldn’t you want an edge — ANY edge — at this crazy time?
A time when heaps of people are going to panic and sell prime property for ‘what they can get’...
A time when the spruikers are going to tell you to push through your sale, even though it seems like madness to you...
A time when the doom and gloomers are going to scare you with talk of a new ‘Great Depression’...
What if I could give you that edge?
Or at the very least, get you thinking about this current crisis in a different, more positive way...
...so that you can think about getting cashed up and ready for that ‘inevitable upturn’ all those deep-pocketed developers are expecting...
Interested? Then I invite you to download a copy of my new eBook: The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026.
And yes, I do know...
Be clear. I’m as worried about the coronavirus as you are. I do not want to get it. I don’t want my loved ones or friends to get it. I don’t want anyone to get it!
We haven’t faced anything like this since the Spanish flu crisis of 1918. That affected one-fifth of the world’s population at the time.
To stay positive while stuck at home, I remember this: As horrible as the Spanish flu was, it didn’t stop the ‘Roaring Twenties’.
It didn’t stop the cycle.
The Spanish flu was a mid-cycle event.
In the subsequent slowdown, the Dow Jones fell by 47%.
Peak to trough, it took about a year and a half, as you can see on the chart. I’m sure it must have felt like the end of the world at the time.
Then look what happened!
The second leg of the cycle kicked in...and it was a humdinger...
The ‘Roaring Twenties’ ushered in a new era of prosperity for the world.
We saw innovations like radio, the automobile, cinema, penicillin, aviation... And inventions like the traffic light...the bulldozer...the instant camera...and even the cheeseburger!
In short: Humanity powered up and moved on.
And look at how this was reflected in the stock market, during the second leg of the cycle...
But then look how the market took back all of those gains — and more — following the cycle peak in 1929 that led to the Great Depression.
Like I say, there’s a sting in the tail of every 18-year cycle.
Of course, you can never say for sure exactly how these things are going to go.
But history tells us each cycle ends with a big crash and real estate always falls hard.
What you need to know is this:
Now — according to the data— is NOT that time.
We’re not at the end of the 18-year cycle...
We’re only mid-way through.
Now is not the time to panic.
Now is the time to plan and prepare.
Keep your cash banked.
Think about your ‘second leg’ strategy.
If I’m right, you will soon have the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
I say ‘If I’m right’ as if I came up with this theory on my own!
This repeating pattern is rooted in land value data, as you can see in the sidebar here >>>
There’s even evidence for the 18-year cycle in the UK that goes back 400 YEARS...
...and a mid-cycle slowdown is apparent in all of them.
Right now, we’re in the 13th ‘mid-cycle recession’ since 1776 in the UK (which was the world’s most important economy in the 18th and 19th centuries).
Two of these slowdowns were in 1857 and 1875.
Land economist, cycle guru and renowned author Fred Harrison shows us the parallels with today in his book, Boom Bust...
1857 — ‘Once again, the Bank of England stepped in to issue notes in excess of its legal limits to try and boost trade and stem the financial crisis.’
1875 — ‘Ruin and devastation swept the land, and for the third time in 23 years, the Bank Charter Act of 1844 had to be broken and [the] Bank of England ordered to issue notes in excess of its legal powers.’
Chaos and panic never change.
But the way we react to these as investors CAN change.
Believe me, I know it’s easy to get worried by all the media noise when the markets are see-sawing every day.
And I know how easy it is to make emotional decisions that you later regret.
But the 18-year cycle can give you instant clarity on what these market events might mean in the grander scheme of things.
And once you have that clarity, like I say, you can do some seriously exciting planning...
Let me show you what I mean. Get your copy of The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026 and discover:
From what I know about the market here in Australia...across all my years of experience...there’s one thing I always impress upon my clients...
Once you understand the cycle, seemingly random incidents in the news will start to make sense.
You’ll see how events that cause markets to move in such dramatic ways — virus outbreaks, credit crises, wars, terrorist attacks — can be explained.
You’ll also get an idea of what’s ahead, giving you the opportunity to make adjustments to your investment plans, ahead of time.
The best assessment I can give you of what’s ahead for all of us is in the pages of The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026.
Right now, I’m giving away a complementary download of my eBook with every new subscription to my monthly advisory service, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts.
I’ll explain quickly how that works.
If you join Cycles, Trends & Forecasts today, you will immediately be able to download a copy of The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026 at no extra charge.
You can take the next 30 days to review Cycles, Trends & Forecasts under no obligation whatsoever.
If, in that time, you decide the cycle doesn’t have the answers you’re looking for — even after I show you TONS more evidence to support this theory — I’ll give you a full refund of the subscription fee.
You can keep my almanac, and all the knowledge contained within, with my compliments.
Nothing more to pay.
Let me tell you more about Cycles, Trends & Forecasts...
Few investors can see it. Even fewer comprehend it.
But I believe that understanding the 18-year cycle is the absolute key to becoming and staying wealthy — more so now than ever.
It means you don’t need to worry so much about the barrage of conflicting news and data we all receive every day from the mainstream media.
Case in point: This little beauty from just the other day on CNBC.
Take a good look at it...
Crazy, isn’t it?
Here you have two opposing headlines from the SAME SOURCE at the SAME TIME!
What on Earth are we supposed to make of this?
Nothing. It just adds to the chaos...and the confusion.
But that’s my point. The cycle helps you mute all of these competing voices.
It gives you focus. And a clear timeline...with staging posts along the way...that can help you a) plan with more confidence and b) when the time comes, make better informed investment decisions.
Cycles, Trends & Forecasts is Australia’s only monthly newsletter, that I know of, dedicated to helping you not only understand the cycles that sit behind gyrations in financial markets, but potentially profit from them.
My speciality is real estate. So, over the coming months, leading into the second leg of the 18-year cycle, I’ll be sharing these kinds of nuggets with you...
As I’ve shown you today, you can use the 18-year cycle to interpret and predict moves in stock markets too.
I showed you how the mid-cycle slowdown manifested in the US stock market in 2001, after 9/11...
...and how the second leg of that cycle powered stocks up to the peak in 2007...before crashing back to Earth in the global financial crisis of 2008.
I also showed you how the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 preceded a mid-cycle slowdown that lasted 18 months on the US Dow...before the second leg of that cycle heralded one of the biggest explosions in stock prices ever seen...
...and then, how it crashed back down in spectacular fashion in 1929...in one of the most spectacular stock market FALLS ever seen.
Point is, if you can see how the cycle moves, you can time your stock investments too.
And there’s no better person I know to help you do that than my Cycles, Trends & Forecasts co-editor, Callum Newman (pictured right).
Callum was on the editorial team at the time of our very first issue in 2014. He helped launch the service in Australia.
He understands how the cycle drives stock values better than any other analyst I’ve met.
And he was one of the first to call the mid-cycle slowdown for 2020.
Like me, Callum had no idea that a novel virus would spread across the world from a wet market in China and shut down the global economy.
But his knowledge of the 18-year cycle told him to be on high alert that something would cause asset markets to fall this year...after such a huge run up in the first half of the cycle.
In September last year, Callum wrote to warn subscribers that 2020 was likely to be dangerous.
He showed readers this chart of the All Ords, with the previous two cycles overlaid. Check it out...his assessment could not be any clearer, some FIVE MONTHS before the current crisis:
So what’s Callum telling our readers now?
As Callum says in The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026:
‘You should feel pleased right now. You’re lucky!
‘We believe 2020 is a very fruitful chance to learn everything you need to know before the next leg up in global markets begins.
‘The knowledge in Cycles, Trends & Forecasts can give you the confidence to act when it comes time to take advantage of the large opportunities we see ahead.
‘Right now, you should be preserving and building as much cash as possible to take advantage of it all.’
If previous mid-cycle slowdowns are anything to go by, you may soon have the chance to buy some wonderful Australian businesses on the cheap.
(And everyone will marvel at your ‘perfect timing!’)
When you think about the top 10 or 20 companies in Australia...what’s different about them now that the market has crashed?
Their share price.
That’s the only thing.
I seriously doubt they’ve become bad companies overnight.
Just cheaper ones.
And — according to the cycle — they could get cheaper still before the market hits its eventual bottom.
At that point — armed with the shopping list Callum will give you — you may be able to acquire some of Australia’s best blue-chip stocks at mid-cap prices.
Think about that.
There are also companies that are closely aligned to the real estate cycle in Australia.
I’m talking about mortgage brokers, builders, construction suppliers, banks and other lenders. The good ones that make it through this downturn could do very well in the second leg of the 18-year cycle.
Join Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, and Callum will not only reveal when that second leg is expected to start...he’ll also tell you which stocks to load up on...what to pay...and when to sell.
No guarantees Callum’s going to be successful with every single individual pick, but he’s as sure as I am that there are likely to be some wonderful opportunities ahead in the stock market.
Once you’re through the doors, Callum and I will reveal more economic cycles that can help you explain and better predict important market events.
For example, we’ll introduce you to the fascinating work of an American stock trader called WD Gann.
Back in the early 1900s, Gann created cycles from patterns in data...and used them to predict booms and busts in the economy more than one hundred years ahead of time.
Check out this ‘financial timetable’...
I know it’s a bit grainy...but that’s because this timetable was created more than 110 years ago, in 1909.
It shows every calendar year between 1784 and 2008.
Gann crunched US stock price data going back more than 120 years...and saw a pattern.
I’m not going to reveal the detail of that pattern here (although we do get into that with Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers).
Let’s just say that Gann discovered that high prices always seemed to be accompanied by a certain type of economic activity...
That activity eventually resulted in a price fall...and brought about a different type of economic activity.
This eventually led to a rise in prices again, and the whole economic cycle began again.
Gann used this pattern to project forward.
That’s what this table is — a year-by-year prediction of major market turning points from 1909 to 2009. Take a close look...
Keep in mind...all of these events were forecast before the start of the First World War.
So, what do you reckon...?
Is this a sequence of ‘lucky guesses’?
Or something that appears to explain the way the world works...and why markets move as they do?
If you’re in the latter camp...if this kind of thing stirs your curiosity...if you’re hungry for answers and possible explanations at this uncertain time in the world...
Join us here at Cycles, Trends & Forecasts. We’ll open your eyes!
We’ll provide explanations for the events most people think are ‘random’.
We’ll show you how this knowledge can help you better predict future turning points in stock and property markets...
And in the process, we hope to hand you a genuine advantage in your investing.
I’m not saying the cycle is always right... or always guaranteed to repeat in the same way.
I’m just saying that it provides you with the historical context to help you make future investment decisions with more confidence.
Imagine, for a second, being able to:
Well...when you open your mind to the silent rhythm of the 18-year cycle, all of this could be possible...
And now that I’ve told you what I know...
I know resources are limited at this time.
But Cycles, Trends & Forecasts can help you make the best of your resources, by helping you make better sense of the markets you invest in.
We can show you how the 18-year cycle narrows the bigger picture into a much smaller picture...which becomes far more tradeable for you...
...and how it draws upon hundreds of years of historical data to help you make the simplest and most important investment decisions of all:
When to get in...and when to get out.
If this appeals to you...if you’re in any way curious or interested to learn more about what I’ve shared with you today, I invite you to take a subscription to Cycles, Trends & Forecasts.
If you do that right now, through this letter, you can save $80 on the cost of your first year’s membership.
The price of a 12-month subscription is $149.
Today, it will cost you just $69.
And it works out at $5.75 per month. Less than the price of a cappuccino in that café you can no longer visit every morning.
(NOTE: This offer is ONLY available on this page. Scroll down and click where it says ‘Join Now’ and the discount will be automatically applied.)
I know it’s cheap. For the insight you’re getting, frankly, I think it’s too cheap.
But it’s a weird time. A worrying time. People are losing their jobs. Businesses are shuttering. Employees are being furloughed.
Now more than ever, people want answers...an explanation...a way of seeing things that makes sense.
I get that.
And that’s why I don’t want the cost of subscribing to Cycles, Trends & Forecasts to be an issue for you. Hence the discount.
Join today and you’ll get each monthly issue delivered to your inbox.
The aim is simple: To help you put the theory behind the 18-year cycle into practice in your own stock and property portfolios.
Callum and I will show you:
You’ll also get:
We don’t limit you to 12 ‘contact points’ a year.
The cycle is constantly in motion. So, when you subscribe to Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, you’ll join an ongoing conversation.
We’ll write to you every Thursday to show you what’s happening in the cycle as it turns.
The idea is to help you make sense of current events in the context of the 18-year cycle.
We’ll show you:
Don’t forget, when you join today, you’ll also get a copy of my brand-new eBook:
Download and read it before you do anything else.
This book is essential to your understanding of how the 18-year cycle is driving the economy and the real estate market right now.
You’ll learn what you can expect over the next six years for all of the major asset classes...
...AND how to time your buy or sell decisions (perfect if you have your eye on a specific suburb...).
You’ll also discover why Callum and I believe we’ll soon be heading into the second leg of one of the biggest booms of all time (we could definitely see a NEW ‘Roaring Twenties’)...
If that’s not all, your subscription also comes with:
I’m sure Cycles, Trends & Forecasts will make a huge difference to the way you invest over the next six years...and beyond.
But if there’s any doubt in your mind, you can get your $69 back, at any time within 30 days from today, for whatever reason.
I appreciate that the idea of a ‘hidden order’ driving the movement of property and stock prices in an 18-year cycle is most likely new to you.
Like many investors I talk to, you may be sceptical about this kind of thing.
It may even make you uncomfortable to begin with.
That’s why I’m offering you 30 days to evaluate our research for yourself — without committing to a full year’s subscription.
All I ask is that you read all the supporting research and material I’m about to send you.
After that, if you still don’t believe the cycle can help you forecast the future in the property and stock markets — and help you to make better investment decisions — just call my customer services team on 1300 029 501 and cancel.
If you do this within 30-days from today, you'll get a full refund of your subscription fee. No questions asked.
If you don’t cancel, I’ll assume you’re delighted with the service. Your annual subscription will be renewed automatically in 12 months’ time at the official price of $149. That will happen every subsequent year until you tell me otherwise.
Or will you ignore what these repeating patterns are telling you...and rely on the media...spruikers...or your own ‘gut feeling’...to chart a course through the next six years of your financial life?
You’ve listened patiently while I’ve made my case, and I thank you for that.
Now it’s over to you.
The only way to fully satisfy your curiosity about the 18-year cycle is to read everything Callum and I send you over the next 30 days.
That’s plenty of time to make your mind up about this (especially as we’re all stuck at home in lockdown at the moment!).
I’m sure you’ll agree that $69 is not a lot of money to spend to discover something that could be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to you over your lifetime (long after this COVID nightmare is behind us).
Remember, you can get that small outlay back at any time in the next 30 days if you’re not convinced by any of the arguments Callum and I make in any of the research we send you.
If you’re still on the fence, let me ask you this:
Do you really think the kind of precision I’ve showed you today is based on a sequence of lucky guesses?
Or the product of some kind of heightened spiritual awareness?
It’s too consistently accurate for either of those explanations to be valid.
So what does that tell you?
To begin your journey with Cycles, Trends & Forecasts...and download your copy of The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026 right now, click the link below...
(You can review everything on the next page before committing)
Editor, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts
PS: If you ever bemoaned that a particular city or suburb was ‘out of my price range’, you could be about to get a really nice surprise.
BUT...it could be the last chance you’ll ever have to buy at an affordable price in these high-demand areas.
You MUST get your timing right. Especially if you have somewhere to sell first.
I can explain what you need to do... Just click below:
(You can review everything on the next page before committing)
PPS: Still undecided? Read these frequently asked questions to help you
make up your mind...
For just $69 today, you will receive an email from me containing a secure link to download my brand-new eBook: The Mid-Cycle Almanac: Your Investing Playbook For 2020-2026.
In addition, you will receive a 12-month subscription to my newsletter, Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, which comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee.
Every month, you will get a PDF of the latest issue delivered to your inbox.
And every Thursday, you’ll receive a private email from me and/or Callum Newman, showing you what’s happening in the cycle as it turns.
The aim is simple: To help you put the theory behind the 18-year cycle into practice in your own stock and property portfolios.
No. I’m real. My publisher is real. We’re part of a publishing group that’s been around since 1979.
Our business is regulated in Australia by ASIC. I am President of Prosper Australia, which is the country’s oldest economics organisation. I’m a real estate expert with more than 20 years’ experience of working with buyers, sellers, developers and investors in Australia. Callum Newman is a fully accredited stock analyst, with more than a decade’s worth of experience. He’s legally able to give general investment advice in Australia.
I get that people are sceptical. If you are, please read my newsletter over the next month of your subscription.
You’ll quickly see that this is the real deal.
No one can guarantee you success in the markets. If someone offers you this, run a mile.
There are always risks involved when you buy property or shares. You should always do your due diligence on any property investment. And where stocks are concerned, you should never invest more than you can safely afford to lose.
I can guarantee one thing you’ll get from Callum and me: Meticulous research.
Callum and I are both students of the 18-year cycle and the land value data that feeds it.
I know an awful lot about the property industry and market in Australia.
Callum knows more than most analysts I’ve met about the types of stocks to buy at different stages of the 18-year cycle...and what signals to look out for that indicate whether it’s a good time to buy or sell.
We won’t hold anything back from you.
I won’t recommend any. That’s not my area of expertise.
My speciality is real estate.
So I’ll let you know what the cycle says about when is a good time to buy (and sell)...and what types of properties will tend to make the best returns at different stages of the cycle.
I also do extensive research into high-potential growth areas, so I’ll let you know where I think the best and newest property ‘hotspots’ are to be found.
Callum will recommend shares from time to time.
They will be based on his reading of the 18-year cycle AND the stock market.
He’ll also tell you what sectors and types of company tend to do well at different times in the 18-year cycle, profiling some of his most promising buys.
There are three...
The first risk is that our research is wrong. That we’ve misinterpreted the data...we’re seeing patterns that aren’t really there...and cooking up projections in our minds.
To that I say, Callum and I are economic analysts. We work with data. We don’t ‘reach’ for explanations...or make tenuous links just so we can be seen to be right. It’s either in the data or it isn’t. I’m not saying that we can’t misinterpret what we’re seeing, but it’s highly unlikely, given the amount of time we’ve both spent studying the cycle.
The second risk is that we’re right — but YOU make a mistake. You go off and rush into a quick decision without a full understanding of our analysis...and you either lose money buying the wrong investment…or you get your timing wrong.
This is a risk only you can mitigate. Callum and I will give you our interpretation of the 18-year cycle and how it applies to property and stocks. We’ll give you the historical precedent. We’ll show you charts that turn the theory into a reality for you. And we’ll give you our recommendations. But what you do with them is up to you.
The third risk is that something comes out of left field to blow the cycle out of whack. One thing I will say is that cycles are living things. The ‘metanarrative’ of history repeats, but the fine detail is never the same.
The 18-year cycle can be influenced by any number of factors. For example, the Second World War disrupted (but didn’t dramatically alter) the economic cycle until about 1955. Then there are major ‘black swan’ events like 9/11, which come out of nowhere and send markets into chaos.
There’s nothing anyone can do about these kinds of events. All we can do is show you how to make sense of them in the context of the cycle
I have your best interests at heart because our interests are completely aligned.
I only have a business if people subscribe to my newsletter.
People will only subscribe — and stay subscribed — if they like the research and our recommendations prove successful for them.
If you are unsuccessful, you will unsubscribe.
If enough people unsubscribe, my newsletter closes...and I lose my job.
Therefore, it’s in my interests to provide excellent research that makes you money!
When you join Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, you’ll receive phone access to our member services team, plus an email address where you can ask any questions related to your subscription (although we can’t give personal investment advice).
Be clear: Callum and I want this to work for you. We want you to use the cycle to be a successful stock and property investor.
We will do everything in our power to help you achieve this aim.
Ready to get started?
Click the link now...
(You can review everything on the next page before committing)