In the pages that follow, discover why…
- A STOCK MARKET CRASH looks close! The All Ords could fall further and harder than 2008...
- A DEEP RECESSION is likely to follow
- NO RESCUE is coming this time...
- YOU SHOULD GET YOUR MONEY OFF-GRID ASAP – read on to learn how...
PART 1: DAY ZERO
It’s 11:54 on Tuesday morning, a few weeks from now…
Just home from an appointment, you pick up your phone, tap on the screen and bring up your stockbroker’s app.
But the app doesn’t load. You just get the spinning wheel.
‘Bloody Wi-Fi’s crashed again,’ you mutter to yourself.
Yet...you’ve got a full signal on your phone.
Hmmm. That’s weird...
Suddenly, an error message flashes up:
‘Sorry, we can’t bring you that information at this time.’
You throw the phone down on the kitchen counter. Try the laptop instead.
Flip up the lid and suddenly your email notifications are going crazy...
Multiple alerts flash up, one after another, then slide off the screen quicker than your eyes can keep pace with.
You focus and manage to catch a few subject lines before they disappear...
‘Don’t panic!’...says one.
‘Respond URGENTLY with action’...says another.
‘Dad, have we been hacked?’...says a third.
It’s all a blur.
Something’s happening, though. Your pulse speeds up...
Swallowing hard, you jump online and navigate to the ABC News homepage.
Eyes dart to the top of the screen:
You try to scroll down but you can’t. Fingers are too sweaty on the trackpad. You swallow hard again. But your throat has gone dry. And now you feel dizzy.
NO...this isn’t right...
But the latest chart from early morning trading on the ASX 200 confirms it. The stock market is in freefall.
Heart pounding, your eyes hurry down the page...
...‘Wall St futures way down’...‘Asian markets rorted’...‘mass selling at the opening bell triggered institutional stops’...‘market collapsing’...‘already the worst crash since 1987...’
The words are right there in front of you on the screen — but you can’t take them in. This is all happening too fast...
Back to your stockbroker’s website. Still can’t log in. THINK...
QUICK NOTE: DON'T PANIC!
I know all this seems scary...but remember, this is just a hypothetical situation.
You grab your wallet out of your jacket and fumble through it. You find your broker’s business card, scan it for the phone number. And call.
Your mind is racing. Is this it?
After five or six minutes of trying, finally, someone picks up. You instantly shout across them: ‘Hello...HELLO!!’
No one replies. Then a voice starts speaking. A recorded message...
‘Following this morning’s market event, all of our brokers are busy. They are dealing with the situation and will update your account accordingly. We will contact you with further information regarding your account in due course. We request your patience while we respond to this event. Thank you for your call.’
The phone goes dead.
You pour yourself a big drink and flick on Sky Business. For the next four hours, they wheel out a succession of bewildered faces, each taking it in turns to stare blankly at a revolving tape of red share tickers.
You hardly move.
At 8:13pm, your phone rings.
It’s your broker. He sounds exhausted.
He says the words you’ve been dreading. But you’re numbed by the shock of it all. You can’t muster fury or anguish. Instead, you mumble a quiet thank you and hang up.
Your private portfolio took a 24% hit.
That’s roughly six years of gains, wiped out in a day.
Worse — more than a third of your retirement savings has gone. You couldn’t have done anything about that even if you’d wanted to.
Still dazed, you drain your drink and pour yourself another large measure. That’s when the enormity of the day begins to dawn on you...
Your mind starts to race again...
What does all this mean...for your retirement...your savings...your travel plans...house...holidays...and your family?
How do you start over?
Is it even possible to make the ground back up?
Not, it seems, in the stock market.
Over the next 13 months, the All Ords continues to plummet.
There’s zero confidence in the Australian economy. Hundreds of businesses close. Overseas investment dries up. It surprises you how quickly it all evaporated.
All up, the market crashes by 49% from peak to trough. It’s worse than the global financial crisis of 2008.
Except, this time, the stock market isn’t the only thing that gets smashed...
Shaken, desperate and afraid, Australians — many of whom have never lived through anything as bad as this — look to their leaders to rescue them from this nightmare.
But the government is powerless. It can’t cut interest rates past zero. It can’t print more money for fear of triggering hyperinflation.
With GDP dropping like a stone, overseas investors lose all interest in Australian government bonds.
Clutching at straws, a hastily convened ‘emergency response group’ in Canberra announces a range of quick-fixes. These include austerity... tax increases...a freeze on super drawdowns...even fuel rationing.
This causes widespread riots.
Various protest groups coordinate on Facebook. The hashtag #AustraliaRiseUp trends wildly on Twitter.
Downtown Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane witness some of the worst social unrest in Australia since the Swanston and Bourke Street riots of 1923.
Angry mobs, scores deep, fight pitched battles with police in the streets, setting fire to cars and smashing up shops and offices.
You can’t believe what you’re seeing on the nightly news.
This doesn’t happen in Australia. Somebody DO SOMETHING.
China has ZERO intention of helping us out…
Coal and iron ore exports to China, once a flood, reduce to a trickle.
Though they don’t say it in as many words, this is absolutely retaliation for Donald Trump’s tariffs. A senior ruling party official is quoted in The People’s Daily as saying: 你躺着狗，你得到跳蚤 — which roughly translates to: ‘You lay down with dogs, you get fleas...’
A major diplomatic effort counts for nothing. BHP and Rio put out dire profit warnings. The metals and mining index slumps to a 17-year low.
In a double blow, Chinese buying of Australian property grinds to a complete halt, roughly two weeks into the crash.
For the first time in more than a decade, Chinese sellers of capital city apartments outnumber buyers.
This causes the housing market to nosedive, forcing hundreds of thousands of Australian mortgages underwater.
Padlocks and eviction notices on front doors become commonplace on suburban streets. Default rates skyrocket, increasing the pressure on our beleaguered banks.
Our old allies in Europe have their own battles to fight...
The poms continue to self-destruct at a breathtaking pace. The UK FTSE tanks quickly after Brexit — despite the government assuring investors that ‘fear is already priced in’. A snap general election results in a hung parliament. No one knows what’s going on.
EU member states’ access to the financial centre in London is curtailed after Britain leaves the European Union. Trade deals worth billions of euros collapse.
This sparks a full-blown financial meltdown in Italy and Greece. Spain comes terrifyingly close to going under. Even France needs an 11th-hour bailout from the European Central Bank.
There’s talk of further EU exits. It’s every man for himself up there.
HOLDING UP OK?
Hang in there — this bit’s almost done. To remind you: this is just a little forward projection on my part. This is all purely hypothetical.
And the Americans turn their backs — on EVERYONE...
Donald Trump wins the 2020 presidential election comfortably. Bernie Sanders hardly lays a glove on him.
Emboldened, Trump doubles down on his marquee isolationist policies, increasing tariffs on China, and threatening Canada, France, India and Mexico with the same. The international community is up in arms.
‘Worth it!’ says the president, in a defiant Tweet.
In a scheduled phone call, Trump tells besieged Australian Prime Minister Richard Di Natale: ‘I’m doing right by the American people...you should do the same for yours...’
PART 2: A LONG
You’re back in the here and now.
Go ahead and check your stocks. Depending on when you’re reading this, everything *should* be okay — for now.
My name is Shae Russell.
I’m a writer and analyst for one of the largest private investment research and publishing networks in the world — The Agora.
What I’ve just shown you — horrible, isn’t it?
You know, it frightened me how quickly I could paint that picture. I didn’t have to dream up horror scenarios...or spend ages trying to work out the possible ramifications of a couple of disastrous events.
It’s easy to map out.
All too easy.
Think about it for a moment. Everything I just described sounds plausible, doesn’t it? I mean, the idea is as scary as hell...
But none of it is especially farfetched.
You must feel it too...
The markets...the political arena...even culturally — things just feel really edgy and weird at the moment.
Until now, no one has been able to put their finger on what’s likely to happen…or when.
But consensus is beginning to build…
And the cracks are starting to show…
I, and others, now believe…
CNBC says: ‘Big-money investors see the bull market ending in 2019…’
Bloomberg: ‘…Warns of a Volatile End to Bull Market in 2019’
Do you think they could be right?
Are you prepared, in case they are?
I’m guessing not.
But then, to be fair, it’s been a while since we had to go through anything like this…
Consider the stock market.
Yes, we had a bumpy end to last year. But we’ve now had roughly 3,650 days without a major crisis — since the last market low in March 2009.
Just so you know: The seven previous Australian bull runs lasted an average of just 669 days.
By that reckoning, we’re long overdue a market crash.
Now, consider how long it’s been since the last recession Australia had...nearly THIRTY YEARS.
Our last recession — the one we famously ‘had to have’ — started in 1990 and ran until September 1991. I was TEN years old...and into Kylie Minogue and She-Ra...not treasury statistics and stock charts!
Now I have a daughter approaching the same age.
She’s part of an entire generation of Australians who’ve never known financial hardship. Who’ve never had to tighten their belts. Never had to worry about losing their job, their savings or their home.
No complaints from me; I’ve loved every minute of it.
I’m sure you have too. Record prosperity. A mining boom. A housing boom. A consumer boom. An everything boom.
Anything we wanted, we could lever-up and get.
Banks couldn’t throw money at us fast enough.
And we grabbed fistfuls of it…because interest rates were so low it was as if they were giving cash away.
You know, towards the end of last year, Australian household debt stood equivalent to 127% of GDP...and 189% of disposable income.
That sounds absolutely insane, doesn’t it?
These debt levels are near record highs as I write this.
Much, much higher than we had just before the global financial crisis, for example.
And globally, Australia is a gnat’s whisker away from having the number one indebted population in the developed world.
You might think the Americans carry more personal debt than we do.
You’re wrong. We’re WAY ahead of them.
Source: Institute of International Finance
See the green line?
I agree. Because sooner or later, we need to pay back what we owe.
And if we can’t pay down debt with interest rates slashed to the bone, what’s it going to be like if rates go UP a per cent or two? You have to think they will eventually...
This is just one of the reasons why I’m worried for Australia right now. And maybe not even the biggest reason.
See, this is also part of what I see as a global unwinding.
An unwinding of a period of excess — in which debts have, once again, skyrocketed…and the global financial system has become highly fragile.
The pressure within the system is intensifying.
Something is surely going to crack…and when it does, I believe it will be devastating.
Some of the investments you own right now — including stocks AND property — could see jaw-dropping falls, perhaps much bigger than those we saw in 2008.
I’m not sure how much you remember about what happened back then.
See, even with all this going on, our economy didn’t tip into recession.
After the crisis hit, to avert its own financial collapse, China started building roads, bridges, shopping malls, apartments, office blocks…even entire cities.
This required millions of tonnes of iron ore, copper and coal.
It bought a huge amount of it from Australia.
Let’s be honest. Chinese money saved our skins after 2008.
And it’s helped us all feel nice and wealthy ever since.
But here’s the point I want to make…
There’s no Chinese money coming this time.
Firstly, for political reasons, which I’ll get into in a minute.
But secondly, and more importantly, because China is — essentially — BROKE.
I know how weird that sounds.
After all, China is the second largest economy in the world…with serious designs on being number one.
Yet, China remains the biggest holder of US dollar-denominated debt in the world.
This is a major SNAFU when you happen to be waging a trade war with the country that PRINTS the currency you need to pay back your debts!
Perhaps more worrying is what JPMorgan refers to as China’s ‘biggest concern’…HUGE public and corporate debt.
Most people don’t know about this (mainly because the Chinese are so bloody secretive) but corporate debt in China is among the highest in the world, standing at a shocking 162% of GDP.
(This is even more shocking in absolute terms when you consider that China has the second highest GDP in the world.)
But wait…why is corporate debt the country’s problem?
Because most of the major companies in China are state-owned.
Here’s where it gets bad for Australia…
In the event of a new financial crisis, it seems certain that China will take whatever steps necessary to stop its crippling debts from dragging it under.
The first and most likely of these steps could be a swift and drastic devaluation of its currency, the yuan.
Under a weaker yuan, everything China imports suddenly becomes A LOT more expensive.
That means everything Australia sells to China goes UP in price.
In this scenario, demand for our coal, iron ore and gas could drop fast…
You can basically join the dots from there.
And you’ll arrive — I’m sure — at the same conclusion I have… In my view, the ONLY logical conclusion:
Australia is on the verge of losing its trade, housing and stock market wealth, as well as its 28-year run without recession.
You know, Australia is known as ‘the Lucky Country’…and we HAVE been lucky. In the last 30 years, whenever there’s been financial turmoil, we’ve always had someone to help us out.
Not this time, it seems.
Morgan Stanley reports: ‘Australia is the world’s most vulnerable major economy…’
It’s easy to see how we could be considered ‘collateral damage’ in the US-China trade war — ready to be sacrificed by either side in this increasingly bitter dispute.
And as I’ll show you later, we look wide open to the damaging effects of a new emerging market debt crisis.
Just like the one that plunged Asia into chaos and triggered a US stock market trading halt back in 1997.
Back then, Australia was fairly well insulated against global financial shocks…
But in 2019, the world’s financial markets — especially the debt markets — are fully interconnected.
The fallout from any single market collapse will likely drag down the whole system and could be virtually impossible to stop.
If this happens, there WILL be real-life consequences — here in Australia. Mark my words.
People could lose fortunes. Dreams will almost certainly be destroyed, and lives shattered.
If this scenario plays out as I expect, and you’re not prepared, it will have a big effect on the way you live your life right now: The neighbourhood you live in...where your kids or grandkids go to school...where you work...(or if you have to)...where and how you shop...when you retire, and how comfortably.
Perhaps the saddest part in all of this is that most people won’t know what to do when they lose their job...when their home is plunged into negative equity...when petrol prices go through the roof...or when their credit cards stop working.
That’s because all they’ve ever known is a booming economy…a thriving stock market…and house prices that double every seven to 10 years.
So if the crisis hits — like the scenario I described earlier — they’ll panic. They’ll dither. And they’ll make mistakes.
Believe me: Making a mistake in the next market meltdown could leave you playing catch-up for the next 20 years.
Do you even have that much time left before you plan to retire?
So, essentially, unless you do something now, it may mean either cancelling your retirement or scaling back your plans.
Not much of a choice, is it?
But that’s why I’m in front of you today: I want to STOP you from making a big mistake — so you DON’T have to make that choice.
I have two things I want to achieve:
First, I want to warn you — to show you how this all ends...and when I believe it could all come crashing down...
Now understand: What I have to tell you over the next few minutes won’t be easy for you to hear.
But if you want to keep the money you have, and you value all the time and effort you’ve taken to get to where you are today, you need to hear it, warts and all.
My second — and biggest — goal in all this is to help you.
I know it’s not always easy to change your plans — and it’s certainly never convenient. But if you can do even just a couple of the things I’ll show you, I’m sure you’ll be better placed than most other Australians...
Believe me, there’s plenty you can do to navigate a clear path through this crisis...and come out the other side…
…not only with your wealth intact, but also — as weird as it sounds — perhaps even richer than you are now.
I’ll walk you through it over the next few minutes.
Before I do that, let me tell you a bit more about the organisation I work for, and why you should listen to us...
PART 3: PROBABLY THE
NETWORK OF INVESTORS IN
The Agora is not a bank or a financial institution.
And we’re not a political organisation, or lobby group.
We’re a research organisation, and a publisher.
We have over four million readers in more than 100 countries worldwide.
To put that into context for you, our readership is roughly the same size as The Wall St Journal and The Economist COMBINED.
And yet, very few people have ever heard of our network — even though we’ve been around since 1979.
That’s because we don’t appear in the mainstream media...and we rarely publicise ourselves.
But we’re fairly unique — at least in the research and publishing world.
You see, unlike most of the financial press, we’re completely independent.
We don’t push any political view...and we don’t run any third-party advertising that could influence our research or views.
That means our network has no vested interest in the stock market going up...or down.
And that’s great news for our readers.
Over the years, we’ve been remarkably good at forecasting financial disasters — and helping our members avoid them.
I’ve no official figures I can quote at you. But I estimate our network has saved hundreds of thousands of investors from financial ruin over the years — just by calling it as we see it and joining the dots for people to help them get safe.
And so here we are again.
Shockingly, very little has really changed since 2008.
The same old problems — huge debts at the private and public levels...a housing bubble...low wage growth...a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending...and a falling dollar — have worked their way back into our financial system, stock market and economy.
Alongside all this, new concerns have surfaced at the global level.
An intensifying trade war between the US and China has put Australia in an almost impossible position.
Our mining exports are already beginning to suffer because of it. Property will likely follow.
And then, two pillars that have held up our economy for almost 30 years will crumble.
Ask yourself these three questions — and please be honest in your answers:
The answers to these questions depend on one thing: Whether you’re prepared.
That’s the aim of this presentation.
You’ve read this far, so I suspect you already sense that something’s not right.
You can ‘smell the smoke’, as it were.
Now let me show you where I can see fire...
PART 4: SEVEN SPOT FIRES,
BURNING OUT OF CONTROL
There are seven what I call ‘spot fires’ burning in the Australian economy at the moment.
And my analysis tells me they’re spreading.
Individually, these ‘spot fires’ aren’t causing us too many problems right now...
But if they combine — man, we’re in big trouble.
Let me walk you through them…
I’ve already told you about Australia’s dangerously high household debt.
Well, typically, rising debts are okay...as long as your income is going up in lockstep.
But it isn’t. Actually, it’s nowhere near.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said back in February that household income used to grow by about 6% a year.
In recent years, it has grown by less than 3% annually.
On the other hand, the rate of inflation is UP since 2015, where it stood at 1.5%. At the end of last year, it was 1.9%.
In other words, your wages used to grow around 3-4% faster than prices. Now they’re barely growing 1% faster.
The Australian reports that:
‘The average household has seen no gains in their after-tax income since the end of 2010, as the economy was emerging from the global financial crisis.’
Does that ring true to you?
How many times recently have you looked at your gas bill...your water rates...your health insurance premium...even your grocery shopping receipt…and been shocked by how expensive things are getting?
…or how little you seem to have at the end of each month when all the bills are paid?
That leads me to...
Personal income tax in Australia has gone up over the past three years — by a whopping 20%.
According to The Australian, the government has quietly dipped its hand deeper into your pocket — to the tune of almost $10 BILLION...
That’s outrageous, isn’t it?
Why haven’t you noticed this?
Ever heard of ‘bracket creep’?
This is where the government relies on inflation and wage growth to nudge regular earners into higher tax brackets.
That explains the increase.
‘Bracket creep’ makes the blood FIZZ in my veins.
Not just because it’s so underhanded.
But because it means many thousands more Aussies could now struggle to cover their monthly bills.
And you can forget having any cash left to splash out on a few of the nicer things in life.
This all contributes to…
A February 2019 report by the Australian National University found that Australian living costs have outstripped incomes by 2.9% since 2015.
They say this represents…
If you’ve noticed this, you’re not in the minority.
According to The Sydney Morning Herald, new polling shows that the cost of living is now ‘the greatest concern among Australians’...
Even at the central bank level, they’re worried about this.
RBA Governor Phillip Lowe says, ominously: ‘…if wages don’t return to growing a per cent or so faster than prices each year, we’ll have all sorts of economic, social and political problems.’
That’s pretty bloody significant, coming from the head of the RBA!
Especially when you consider…
The last available figures show that the government now owes a sum equivalent to 41.9% of the country’s gross domestic product.
That’s not only the highest we’ve seen since records began. It’s also DOUBLE the rate it was nine years ago.
The acceleration SINCE the global financial crisis is super-worrying.
And yet, interest rates are as low as they’ve been in a generation.
You have to think: If this ratio isn’t falling now, there’s a chance it never will. (Well, not without a default...)
Now, consider that real GDP growth stands at just 2%, currently.
See how the maths doesn’t add up?
Our national debt is growing WAY faster than our ability to pay it off!
But closer to home there’s...
Don’t buy the estate agent BS. This is not a ‘softening’...or a ‘blip’.
In my view: This is a full-blown housing market downturn.
Real estate website Domain just reported the steepest annual price fall, Australia-wide, in FIFTEEN YEARS.
How much further the market drops from here will determine — for many of us — the quality of our lives for the rest of our lives.
Oh, it’s that serious.
Housing is one of the two main pillars of the Australian economy. Mining being the other one and, don’t worry, I’m coming to that.
Hundreds of thousands of Aussies got rich off the back of the great Australian housing boom.
But markets can turn too, don’t forget.
The First Home Owner Boost — a 14 grand handout introduced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis — is dead and gone...
The First Home Owner Grant has been throttled right back. You can now only access it if you build from scratch.
And it doesn’t look as though there will be any significant interest rate cutting like there was after the 2008 crisis, to encourage borrowers and investors into the market...
Interest rates are already on the floor.
So…what will you do if your house — most likely your biggest single investment — falls in value by 25% or more this year?
It’s something to think about. Because I tell you this: Property is one dangerous-looking investment market right now.
Talking of dangerous investment markets...
Between the end of September and Christmas last year, the All Ords tanked by 16%.
I honestly thought it was the start of ‘the big one’.
It turned out not to be. I believe that’s still to come. But it certainly capped off a miserable year. The worst for Australian stocks since 2011.
But it wasn’t just our market that got spanked. Investors all over the world suddenly lost confidence and snatched their money out of stocks.
The US Dow and the UK FTSE both dipped sharply. Asian and European markets dropped, too. All in the same, brutal quarter.
Now, okay, the market has bounced back since then.
But have the structural issues just vanished?
Speculators will always rush back in to ‘buy the dip’, if they can see a chance to make a few bucks.
Question is: Why did global stock markets correct so sharply in the first place?
Well...people sell stocks when they’re frightened...or concerned about the future...when the risks don’t seem worth it...or when they think there’s a chance they could lose money.
They act out of FEAR.
What stokes fear?
Now, you tell me…
Let me put it another way:
Let me tell you: Fear doesn’t disappear without credible reassurance.
And I don’t know about you, but I don’t feel particularly reassured about the future right now.
The first signs that Australian coal is being used as a political weapon came in February.
The Australian Financial Review reported that five key harbours in China’s north had banned Australian coal imports completely.
Reuters quoted a source at one of those ports who confirmed that Australian coal had been blocked. Further reports stated total coal imports from Australia would be capped.
Meanwhile, in an article mockingly titled ‘Can’t even sell coal to China’, state news agency Xinhua reported that the time taken to clear Australian coal through Chinese customs had doubled to 45 days...
...while imports from Russia, Indonesia and even Mongolia were being waved through.
Let me put this into context for you.
In 2018, coal became Australia’s most valuable export.
The Chinese government knows this.
And it’s shown that it’s prepared to use it against us.
Rumour has it that China is not happy with us for three reasons.
The coal import ban…caps…and customs delays…are seen by many in the know as retaliation for these three indiscretions.
I have to say, this has me really worried.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Has been since 2007.
The knock-on effects for our economy would be catastrophic.
I don’t think anyone has really considered what happens to Australian jobs...property values...stock prices...energy prices...the fate of scores of Aussie mining communities...if China stops buying.
Some people are defiant, and I get that. Australia is a great country. I’m proud to be Australian.
But be realistic: Other than selling rocks to China and houses to one another, what else do we have?
Okay…name FIVE products Australia makes that we export to the world.
Go on, I’ll wait…
According to the ABC, what remains of Australia’s manufacturing industry could ‘perish in the next five years’.
Making the products Australians consume every day — like basically everything else over the past 30 years — has become completely dependent on China.
This is why I’ve recently grown more and more concerned about this emerging Chinese ‘retaliation’ threat.
Turns out I’m not the only one.
My most trusted contact in The Agora network — Jim Rickards — has a specific China-related warning for Australian investors that I’ll share with you next.
Jim’s name may sound familiar to you.
You may know him as a New York Times bestselling author.
Or you may know that he ran financial ‘war game’ scenarios for the White House.
Or that he’s a key adviser to the US Department of Defense and the CIA on financial threats to US national security.
I feel extremely blessed to have been an associate and friend of Jim’s for the last four years.
So, a week or so ago, I Skyped him at his home in Connecticut…
I wanted to get Jim’s thoughts on China...the trade war...and whether he sees any similarities between where Australia is right now, and the lead-up to previous financial and economic crises.
I wasn’t really prepared for his answer...
PART 5: THE TRADE WAR GUT PUNCH
‘I’ll remember the events of Wednesday, 2 July 1997 for the rest of my life,’ said Jim Rickards as we spoke on Skype a few days ago.
‘A financial pandemic rippled through global markets.
‘Starting in Thailand, it quickly spread to Indonesia...then Korea.
‘By summer 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt and its currency, the ruble, cratered.
‘History calls it the Asian currency crisis.
‘Few people realise it almost wreaked more destruction on the global economy than the subprime mortgage crisis a decade later.
‘I know how bad it really was because I was there…
‘Right at the centre of it.
‘A huge chunk of the Western world’s losses from this liquidity crisis ended up on the ledger of a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).
‘As LTCM’s lead counsel, I was at the epicentre as this crisis unfolded.
‘I sat at the head of the table at every executive committee and board meeting that terrifying mid-summer.
‘Total losses were US$4 billion.
‘At one stage, we were losing tens of millions of dollars an hour.
‘But that was nothing.
‘Beneath the tip of that iceberg was a trillion dollars in derivative trades, spread across the books of the biggest banks in Wall Street and London.
‘If LTCM failed, those trades would have imploded.
‘Wall Street’s biggest names would have fallen like dominoes.
‘And global markets would have collapsed.
‘Most people don’t know this…
‘I do because I personally led the team that rescued the financial system…’
Jim negotiated a secret, behind-closed-doors bailout with 14 of the world’s biggest banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citibank.
Source: Agora Financial
They received US$4 billion in rescue money.
The US Federal Reserve was involved too.
Source: Agora Financial
As Jim put it, they were close...a hair’s breadth...from a systemic global financial Armageddon — which would have made 2008 look like a school playground dust-up.
But why was Jim telling me this?
‘Shae, I can see another iceberg tip concealing a similar colossal crisis…
‘…Like with LTCM, you could assemble the total number of people who understand the true extent of this looming crisis in a medium-sized cloakroom...’
Jim told me he believes this coming financial crisis will be more dangerous than anything he’s ever witnessed in his long career…
Rivalling and surpassing the 1973 Arab oil embargo…the 1987 stock market crash…the currency crisis in Asia…the dotcom bust…and even the 2008 financial meltdown.
And what will most likely cause this crisis?
Very few people realise it.
But US President Trump’s increasingly bitter trade dispute with Beijing could trigger a massive financial crisis.
Not just for America. Or China.
For all of us.
In fact, the longer this goes on, the clearer it is to me that Australia could be one of the biggest casualties.
Yes, I know Donald Trump isn’t targeting our economy per se.
But it doesn’t matter.
See, when Trump targets China with trade barriers and tariffs, he’s really cracking down on Chinese exports.
These exports — things like steel, cars and washing machines — are chock-full of Australian iron ore, copper, aluminium and other resources.
And they are often manufactured in plants that run on Australian coal.
If China can’t sell its goods in the US, what will happen to Australia’s biggest exports?
They could tumble. Hard.
If that happens, so will our GDP.
There’s another, more sinister, political side to this story too...
Remember I told you earlier on that Chinese port authorities are already starting to turn away shipments of Australian coal?
They won’t say it outright.
But this looks suspiciously like retaliation for Australia being an ally of the US.
Remember, we support the Americans strategically and militarily in the hotly disputed South China Sea region.
According to the ABC, Australia plays an ‘active role in contributing to US conventional and nuclear deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.’
In other words,
I’m not saying it will come to that. Christ, I hope not.
But can you see why China would be reluctant to jump to our aid in the event of a major financial crisis?
I tell you: I wouldn’t want to be the Prime Minister right now — for love nor money. To say Australia is stuck between a rock and a hard place is an understatement!
China, our biggest trading partner, is squaring up to the US, our most important ally.
Pretty soon, our politicians will, I’m sure, be forced to choose between Australia’s economy and our regional security.
Which way will they turn?
But even if we’re not forced into this nightmare catch-22 scenario, the trade war appears to be on course to topple our economy sooner rather than later.
And that’s because of the growing potential for…
Remember Jim Rickards warning me about a ‘new iceberg’on the horizon…concealing a ‘colossal crisis’?
This is what he was talking about.
Specifically, these eight charts.
They probably won’t mean a lot to you, so let me explain what you’re looking at (aside from the almost certain end of Australia’s 30-year run of economic good fortune…)
These eight charts show how countries around the world have racked up HUGE debts over the past 18 years or so.
Three things you should know about these charts...
Because this problem could blow up in your face, that’s why.
The main reason emerging markets borrow in US dollars is that their own currencies lack credibility.
Borrowing in US dollars makes their debt more marketable to other countries, leading, often, to a lower interest rate than if they borrowed in their own currency.
The reality is that few people want yuan, reals, pesos, lira or rand…or the currency risk that comes with them.
That’s not me being insensitive. It’s just a fact.
Many people believe that there’s less risk buying US dollar debt. And that’s all fine.
But guess what?
These debts also have to be REPAID in US dollars.
Now, paying back debt isn’t usually a problem when the currency markets are calm. The debt just gets rolled over when it falls due.
But it gets harder to repay when the value of the US dollar is climbing against those countries’ domestic currencies.
Suddenly, it costs them more to service the debt.
Now…if Donald Trump’s trade war escalates — and I expect it to — it would likely force the value of the US dollar up higher and higher against all of these other currencies.
At that point, these smaller countries — with HUGE US dollar-denominated debts — are in BIG trouble.
Default becomes not only possible but, in my view, likely…because these countries won’t be earning enough US dollars to make their repayments.
You might think this sounds farfetched.
But this exact same scenario has happened before, in 1997 — when the Asian financial crisis unleashed a record-breaking plunge in stocks (this is the story Jim told me on our Skype call).
Check it out…
In case you’re not clear about how serious the Asian financial crisis was…
The crisis triggered the biggest ever daily points drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see above).
This, in turn, forced the first ever self-imposed trading halt in US stocks.
Imagine it: A financial crisis SO severe they close the US stock market to stop it from taking any further losses…
Well, it happened.
And that wasn’t all. In addition:
And what was the primary cause of the 1997 Asian financial crisis?
Emerging market economies had borrowed huge amounts of US dollars.
When their currencies fell against the US dollar, they couldn’t repay the loans.
Okay. Fast forward to today.
Remember those eight charts?
Take another look.
This is what mountains of debt look like.
These are all emerging market economies. And ALL this is in US dollars…
Source: Bank of International Settlements
If Donald Trump’s trade protectionism forces the value of the US dollar up further against any of these countries’ currencies…and there’s a liquidity crisis…and a loss of confidence…
I predict a number of sovereign defaults — just like in 1997. If it comes to this, the global financial system would likely crumble.
Wait…why is the whole system at risk?
Because of CONTAGION.
Simply, the world’s economies are much more interconnected now than they were 22 years ago.
Meaning, when one economy goes down...the whole system could get dragged down with it.
A University of Chicago economics professor called Randall Kroszner actually studied the interconnection of global economies after the 2008 financial crisis caught everyone off guard.
‘The many layers of intermediation create chains of inter-linkages that can make the entire system more vulnerable to shocks in any one market or at any single institution.’
Put another way: Donald Trump has given our biggest trading partners an almost impossible economic problem to solve.
And now it’s turning into our problem too.
Bottom line, as I see it:
Remember: If China stops buying Australian resources, everything stops.
The two pillars that have propped up our economy for so long — mining and property — are at risk of collapse. There are worrying signs coming out of both sectors already.
And we’re just not strong enough financially, in any other area, to pick up the slack.
We’re up to our eyeballs in debt — and I can’t see any chance of us ever being able to pay it back. The ABC says: ‘Australians face $700b wealth wipe-out as debt levels rated riskiest in the world…’
On top of this, taxes are going up and will probably go much higher over the next few years. Wage growth is slowing dramatically. Our standard of living is the lowest it’s been in three decades.
The point is, the cards are seriously stacked against us.
I urge you to follow this line of thought to its conclusion…and you’ll see that this has real-world consequences…for you, me, our families, our jobs and our future.
If you think I’m being overdramatic, well, I’m sorry.
But then again, I’m NOT sorry. I have to put it this bluntly.
See, crazy as it sounds, there are many thousands of Australians who still believe nothing bad will ever happen to us.
They refuse to see the evidence that’s right in front of their faces, because it’s unlike anything they’ve experienced in the last 30 years.
All Australia has known is prosperity, wealth and good times. Most of us simply can’t fathom these things changing.
But things are changing...and faster than many people realise.
Which means what you need to do now is clear…
PART 6: SELL AUSTRALIA!
What do I mean by ‘Sell Australia’?
I suggest shifting your money — as much as you feel comfortable moving — into assets that have a much lower potential exposure to a stock market collapse or financial crisis.
And I think you should do this right away.
Please heed my words. Australia is ALREADY in a per-capita recession, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is the first time we’ve seen anything like this since 2006.
The Sydney Morning Herald says that without migrants fuelling consumption, Australia’s economic growth would be going backwards.
How long do you think this is likely to last?
Stocks and property don’t go up forever. They just don’t. Yes, we’ve had a great run…and yes, it’s been one hell of a party for Australia these last three decades.
But usually, that means there’s one hell of a hangover coming.
I’ve shown you the headlines and given you the facts, figures and analysis.
I’ve laid out my best case for you in this presentation.
I don’t know how much clearer I could be.
You MUST see the writing on the wall. You can, can’t you?
If you agree with me — or even HALF agree — there’s simply no excuse. You must act now to protect everything you’ve ever worked hard to build. Why would you stand by and watch it disappear down the toilet? It just doesn’t make sense.
Let me help you…or at least TRY to help you… AHEAD OF TIME.
First, to be clear:
For starters, this isn’t great advice in the event of a financial crisis where we may get a run on the banks.
Secondly, what I have to share with you is an INVESTMENT strategy.
It’s not just an opportunity to protect your hard-earned money in the event of a financial calamity that cripples Australia.
There could be opportunities to grow it, too. Maybe considerably.
After all, not everything goes down in a bear market.
There are some surprisingly good investment opportunities that come out of crises…
For example, it’s possible to buy assets that are negatively correlated to the stock market. In other words, they tend to go UP when stocks go DOWN.
And no, I’m not just talking about gold.
You’ll get the picture as I go through my full ‘survival’ strategy with you.
I’ll also walk you through how to implement it, step by step.
Rest assured, every investment asset I recommend to you will be fairly straightforward to acquire…at least right now.
But if you wait, these things will almost certainly get very expensive, difficult…maybe even impossible to do.
So, let’s get on with it.
Here are the four specific steps I think you should consider taking, right away…
STEP #1: MOVE SOME OF YOUR MONEY OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM (it’s not as complicated as you might think)
When you talk about getting your money ‘off grid’, people automatically think you mean they should build a grain silo, buy a solar-powered generator and hide under the kitchen table while Armageddon rips through the financial system.
Not so. The good news is that there is one asset you can own quickly (and is widely available in Australia) that effectively moves your money ‘outside the system’…and it could help protect you and your family from this chaos.
Oh, and it could also make you a fortune in the years to come.
And no, IT’S NOT GOLD.
Wealthy families have used this asset for generations to protect themselves…preserve their wealth…and build financial dynasties.
In fact, I believe it to be the most valuable asset and biggest wealth builder in the world.
On top of that…
For example, during the Second World War, when millions of families lost their life savings through inflation or government seizure, this one asset, along with another I’ll talk about in a moment, enabled some families to not only protect but GROW their wealth.
Many of the richest people in Australia (and the world) have a significant portion of their wealth in this asset.
Gina Rinehart and her children have all become crazy-rich from owning it. Frank Lowy, Lindsay Fox, Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest and John Gandel are other Australians who have done very well out of it.
Best of all, you can make an investment in it today…because Australia has plenty of it.
This is just one asset I want to tell you about.
There’s another ‘under the radar’ asset that can store wealth for generations. Some of the wealthiest families in the world have used it to preserve wealth for hundreds of years.
Again, it’s not gold…or silver…or any type of jewellery. It’s far less conspicuous.
You can store it anywhere, and few people will ever realise its true value.
It’s light. And it’s portable. You can carry it on your person, if you so wish — as long as it’s well-protected.
(I’ve heard stories of people chucking this asset in their carry-on luggage, completely undetected, to move it out of the country.)
You don’t need millions to purchase it. But depending on the quality and the age of this asset (which is easily verifiable to people in the know), some examples can go for millions.
The best part?
I’ll give you all the details of these two ‘off-grid’ wealth-preserving assets in a brand-new report called:
SELL AUSTRALIA! How To Get Your Money ‘Off-Grid’ Ahead of the Greatest Australian Financial Crisis Since the 1930s
I’ll show you how you can get your hands on a copy in just a moment.
Also in my new report are three other places you can move your money to, providing a hedge against the worst of a market collapse.
STEP #2: LEARN THE ‘SECURITY LADDER SECRET’
Sounds like an obvious question, but what do you crave in moments of extreme uncertainty and stress in your life?
Predictability. Stability. And normality.
Having all your cash locked in the stock market when shares start to tumble promotes panic and indecision.
That panic is heightened if you’re relying on that money to pay for your retirement.
The ‘Security Ladder’ strategy is our perfect antidote to market uncertainty and panic.
It’s a way you could get paid a regular, annual income from your investments, almost regardless of what happens to your shares.
In fact, you don’t have to sell any shares to receive this income.
And no, IT ISN’T DIVIDENDS.
I know that sounds odd, maybe even impossible. But I assure you it’s not.
Picture it. The market drops 49% — like in the story I told you at the beginning of this presentation.
Everyone loses their heads. Don’t forget, most people have a super fund for their retirement savings…and I’d wager that most of their super fund is probably invested in stocks.
So in our scenario, all those people would be scrambling to offload shares that are tumbling in price.
In other words, they get what they get.
With a ‘security ladder’, your financial world is way more predictable.
See, it doesn’t matter what’s happening to the All Ords…
More importantly, you won’t have to dump your shares at depressed prices during the crisis. You can hold onto them until they recover.
Oh boy…I’m itching to tell you everything about this super-smart, recession-busting investment strategy.
You’ll find everything you need to know about it in another new report, titled The Security Ladder: The World’s Most Powerful Investment Strategy.
Details on how to get your copy coming up.
First, let me tell you about the next step in my ‘Sell Australia’ strategy...
STEP #3: OWN THE ONE ASSET THAT COULD HELP SAVE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY, NO MATTER HOW BAD THINGS GET
It’s been a store of wealth for generations.
Everyone from the ancient Egyptians…to the Rockefellers and Rothschilds…have used this asset class for its legendary wealth-storing power: Keeping their families rich for generations.
The smartest money managers on the planet — people like George Soros, John Paulson and one of the biggest institutions in the world, JPMorgan — have all taken huge positions in this asset class.
And right now, China and other central banks around the world are hoarding it (probably for the same reasons you should be).
What am I talking about?
What else? Gold.
You can get gold in all different shapes and sizes. You can hold it, hide it and store it. Not to mention take it with you in times of crisis. And quite easily as well.
Most importantly: Gold rarely loses its purchasing power. In times of economic crisis, gold is well known for its ability to protect wealth.
If you’d bought gold priced in US dollars at the turn of the century, you would be up 361% by now.
And I won’t be at all surprised if gold goes up another three to five times — maybe even 10 times — in the years to come…BECAUSE of the coming crisis, not in spite of it!
But what type of gold should you buy? And in what quantities?
I’ve put it all together for you in a new report called: The Australian’s Guide to Gold’s New Bull Market.
Download your copy today, and you’ll learn all about:
In fact, you’ll discover no less than eight gold investment ideas in my report.
These represent my best advice for leveraging a potentially record-breaking run up in the gold price.
My colleague, Jim Rickards, believes gold could rocket all the way up to US$10,000/oz as the stock market crashes and burns over the coming months and years.
If we’re right, that could not only give you the best wealth-protecting strategy there is…but could also put you…
Now, remember I told you that some investments tend to go UP when the wider market is crashing?
Well, let me tell you more about those investments now…
STEP #4: ACQUIRE WORLD-CLASS ASSETS THAT ARE ‘NEGATIVELY CORRELATED’ TO THE STOCK MARKET
You may not know about these assets. But they exist all over the world.
For example, in the US, when weapon company stocks outperform the index, it’s typically a sign that fear is present in the economy...
Now, you don’t find those specific companies here in Australia.
But there are many others.
In my investment advisory service, Strategic Intelligence Australia, I show members the investment strategies that I believe are best placed to preserve and grow wealth in good times and bad.
These are STRATEGIC plays, typically. Not buy-and-hold investments.
Sometimes, these are world-class stocks. Other times, bonds. And sometimes, commodity plays.
The goal is twofold:
This is — in my opinion — the best strategy for wealth growth and protection right now. Especially now.
Every month, Jim Rickards helps me put it together.
There’s no one better connected, no one who speaks on matters of financial security with greater authority than Jim — probably anywhere in the world.
He is at your disposal. In fact, I ought to tell you that many of the strategies Jim develops are things he is doing with his own money.
My friend and colleague, Nick Hubble, also has a big input into our recession-busting investment strategy.
Every month, Nick, Jim and I review and refine this investment strategy — and then report to you on progress and any changes you need to make.
When we believe it’s time to take a position in a specific asset class, I will send you a private email and let you know.
When we believe the time is right to take profits or exit a position, I’ll write again.
You don’t have to play every position we recommend. That’s up to you.
Keep in mind this strategy has been put to the test time and time again, with great results for our subscribers so far.
So, tell me…
Do you want to protect your wealth from an economic crisis that looks all but inevitable at this point?
Shall I send you my strategy — so you can make a start on building your own defensive plan, right away?
Then there’s not a moment to lose.
Here’s what you need to do next…
PART 7: YOUR TICKET
OUT OF THIS MESS
Look, I realise that this can’t have been easy for you to hear.
Believe me, I take no pleasure whatsoever from being the bearer of this kind of news.
But someone has to give it to you straight. The mainstream media is not tracking these growing threats like we are. And the financial industry — your broker...fund manager...and financial adviser — will not draw a direct link between them and your money.
In many cases, their salaries...bonuses...in fact, their entire LIFESTYLE is predicated on selling you the idea that stocks and real estate will continue to go up.
But as I’ve shown you, these are extremely dangerous assumptions to be making at the moment.
Yes, for the last 28 years our stocks have gone up, our currency has stayed strong, our house prices have tripled and our wages have risen.
But the big trend is changing, and that means you need to change too.
In this presentation, I’ve tried to let you know what all this means for wealth you’ve accumulated over a lifetime. And — like The Agora has been doing for 40 years — to present sensible options to you to help you get safe.
Now I’d like to send you the full details on exactly how I believe this is all going to unfold...and exactly how to protect yourself and even prosper during this crisis.
The best part is that you can look at our research, and receive everything I’ve just told you about, with no obligation.
Simply let me know you’d like to take a trial subscription to my monthly newsletter, called Strategic Intelligence Australia, and I will immediately rush you:
Also, in the third week of each month, I’ll send you the latest issue of our monthly newsletter, Strategic Intelligence Australia.
Jim, Nick and I will keep you up to date with exactly what’s going on regarding this new global financial crisis.
And we’ll show you some unusual — but valuable — ways to protect your finances, and even make money, if it all begins to unfold as we expect.
As I said before, not all assets go down in a crisis. There’s no reason to believe that 2019 won’t throw up some surprising opportunities to grow your net worth, as well as some serious pitfalls.
For example, few people saw the cryptocurrency mania coming in 2017.
We told Strategic Intelligence Australia subscribers to buy bitcoin on 28 February 2017 — when it was selling at US$1,195.28.
We advised them to sell it at US$4,596 for a 284.51% gain.
Yes, bitcoin was on the speculative side. But it still represented an unusual and off-grid way to grow our readers’ wealth. And — crucially — we got subscribers out of the trade before the cryptocurrency bubble popped in early 2018.
Okay. So, you’re probably wondering…
Well, a one-year subscription to Strategic Intelligence Australia, including everything I mentioned here, normally costs $99 per year — that’s what many others have paid.
But right now, you can try our research for HALF-OFF the normal rate.
You’ll pay just $49 for an entire year.
Why so cheap?
Well, to be honest, our business really only works if our subscribers stick with us for the long term. But we realise you’ve got to try our research first, to see if it’s right for you.
And that’s why, through this presentation, we’re making it so cheap and — at least in terms of the cost of the subscription — risk-free to try.
What I mean is, you’ll have the next 30 days to take a look at:
If you decide for any reason this work is not right for you, just let me know within the next 30 days and you can receive a full refund...and keep everything you’ve received so far.
In other words, by taking me up on this offer, you are agreeing only to TRY my work to see if you like it.
To sum up, when you pay just $49 today, here’s what you get:
ALL these benefits of membership are yours — for just 94 cents a week for your first 12 months.
When the crash comes, it will happen suddenly. It will take most people by surprise.
I’m sure there will be a stampede for the exits.
It will be like someone sounding a fire alarm in a crowded concert hall. All of a sudden, those emergency exits will look awfully small.
It could take you an age to get out when everyone is trying to do the same thing.
The whole experience will be frightening and unpleasant.
Why put yourself through that?
Doesn’t it make more sense to try to plan for the worst now?
...While you still have options?
...While you can still exercise some control over your destiny?
...While your assets are still worth something?
You can download our ‘Sell Australia’ investment strategy right now — and set your plan into action today, if you so wish.
I believe that once you read the research and consider the ideas, you’ll find yourself better able to sleep at night.
Listen, even if I’m only half right about what’s coming…not only could you be better prepared to deal with it, there’s also a good chance you could make a lot of money over the next few years.
And even if nothing terrible happens right away, you’ll have put in place a plan to diversify your risk out of the toxic financial system.
Tell me how that’s a bad thing!
Please don’t put this off. Don’t close this window... and say you’ll come back to it later, because you most likely won’t.
The truth is, people rarely act until an ‘inconvenience’ turns into a crisis (even though fixing an inconvenience is often way cheaper and causes less stress.)
The irony is, an inconvenience is usually within your power to solve. Once it becomes a crisis, it’s no longer within your control. All you can do is try to limit the damage.
Don’t let it come to that.
This is still in your hands.
Do something about it now.
I believe in my heart it could be one of the best financial moves you ever make.
To get started, simply click on the link below, and you’ll have access to all our work in a matter of minutes.
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All content is © 2019 Agora Financial Australia Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved
Agora Financial Australia Pty Ltd is an authorised representative (1255667) of Port Phillip Publishing Ltd (holds an Australian Financial Services Licence: 323 988.) ACN: 617 997 547 ABN: 14617 997 547
All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.
Calculating Your Future Returns: The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you've invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in this report are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any potential gains in this letter do not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your particular situation. Investments in foreign companies involve risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Specifically, changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause a divergence between your nominal gain and your currency-converted gain, making it possible to lose money once your total return is adjusted for currency.
All figures accurate as at 01/04/2019.
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